Is Haley Barbour regretting his ploy to schedule the special election to replace Trent Lott in November? Some political observers in Mississippi are already calling it a potentially huge blunder:
“This may have been the worst decision he’s ever made,” said longtime political analyst Dr. Marty Wiseman.
That’s because former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, a Democrat, has emerged as competition in the November vote, and perhaps more significantly, Barack Obama last week wrapped up the party’s presidential nomination.
“I think Musgrove has had turnout fall into his lap,” added Wiseman, the director of the Stennis Institute for Government at Mississippi State University. “The Republicans have had it since Haley came back to the state, but Obama has taken care of that.” […]
Wiseman and Atkins agree the significance of Obama’s candidacy on the Senate election will be a turnout tsunami of blacks, who traditionally have voted Democrat but have not been accustomed to heavy voting in Mississippi or national elections in recent years because of Republican dominance.
Similarly, David Hampton over at the Jackson Clarion-Ledger argues that Barbour may have “outfoxed himself” with by insisting on the Nov. 4 date, and not realizing that a Barack Obama candidacy could excite the state’s African-American Democratic base like never before.
Over at Daily Kos, SSP’s DavidNYC famously laid out the blueprint for a narrow Barack Obama win in Mississippi, but the same plan (with perhaps some slight tweaks) could be used for Ronnie Musgrove’s road to victory. It is worth mentioning that the Obama campaign, according to a recent NY Times article, is planning on greatly expanding the electoral college battlefield, and has even made inquiries about advertising rates in Mississippi.
But even without Obama directly contesting the state, it’s very likely that the state’s African-American population, at 37% of the state, will be very energized anyway. This is going to complicate things for Roger Wicker.
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Food For Thought
Who would have thought that Barbour’s special election plan could backfire so fast?
I like the odds in MS
Musgrove has the bigger name ID than Wicker
Obama’s coattails would further push Musgrove over the top
Also with Dem’s still controlling the legislature we might not even have to worry so much about Childer’s being drawn out
Musgrove Deserves a political comeback!
Anyone know what the turnout for Obama was in the primary? This could be key.
As for turnout for African American’s in Mississippi or really Nation wide, I really dont imagine being below 90%. Really, I think 90% of all African American’s (if not more) who are eligible to vote will. How can they this sit out? This is going to be something we say some day, happily to ourselves, I got to vote for the first African-American for president. African American turnout, +90%.
I think they were screwed either way.
Do it early and Musgrove’s name rec and the DSCC’s cash wins it. Do it in November and Obama’s coattails do it.
A win in Mississippi could kill the GOP. That could be enough to give the Democrats the 60 seats they need for a super-majority, hopefully 60 seats not counting Lieberman.
If Obama wins Mississippi, he will likely win well over 300 EC votes, which could be enough to fracture the GOP as the religious right says, ‘We told you so.’ and starts looking for a new party.
…touted as a possible VP? I thought a VP was supposed to help you win, not jeopardize your win!
I had a feeling that Barbour’s decision could blow up in his face if Obama won the nomination and it appears this will come to pass. African-American turnout should be huge in the general election.
With the sentiment in this article. With a November election, Wicker can utilze his money advantage. Had there been a special election, Musgrove could’ve used the DSCC and his superior name ID to erase Wicker’s money advantage.
This could possibly end up being true. I always thought it was stupid Musgrove picked Wicker anyhow to start out with. Now look, we’ve lost a House seat to add to a possible Senate seat loss. He should have chosen someone not holding office right now.
Don’t ever underestimate people’s ability to be either stupid, or lazy. Both factor in hugely in a case like this. Plus all would have to plan ahead to register to vote. And that’s another thing, don’t underestimate the ability for most people to procrastinate. lol
mr. trent lott. a house seat and hopefuly a senate seat too. thanks trenty, but it’s really too much, you just leaving the senate was more than enough.
I hate to jinx this, but I feel very good about this race. I know, I know: it sounds silly and probably naive to be confident at this early stage, but I do not make the statement lighty. Obviously Obama is going to be very helpful to Musgrove, and Wicker does not have statewide name recognition, and the fact that there will be no party affiliations on the ballot will be helpful, but to me the most compelling argument for Musgrove is this: he is a very strong candidate.
When Mike Moore dropped out, just about everyone disregarded our changes in the Magnolia State, but Musgrove is a top nominee. He has the right profile, he has won statewide before, and he is a very hard worker and campaigner. He did lose in 2003, but (1) it was 53-46 at a time when the GOP brand was on fire; and (2) he lost to an incredibly popular and sharp politician in Haley Barbour. I have been saying since he got in that Musgrove would garner a baseline 45 percent — not small feat in Mississippi — and just had to get over the top. In my opinion, our Senate rankings are VA, NM, CO, NH, MN, and then MS. I think, at least at this state, Musgrove has a better shot of winning than Kay Hagen, Jeff Merkeley, Rick Noriega, and even Mark Begich.
In terms of Barbour’s decision, he probably made the right one, at least when it came to deciding when to hold the election. Barbour knew that if Moore or Musgrove was in, both of them had already won statewide before while Wicker was (and still is) mostly unknown statewide. Had Barbour placed the election in March or April, he would have been putting the seat in serious peril. He had no choice, particularly with the non-partisan special election ballot required by state law. Finally, Barbour knew that if the election were held the same day as the presidential primary, massive Dem turnout was likely with the GOP primary dead and with Obama on the ticket to inspire massive African American turnout.
It is easy to question his judgement — and believe me, I am glad our chances look good now — but I think Barbour was in a difficult position either way. Naturally, he figured that (1) the GOP would easily retain MS-01; (2) putting the election in November would give Wicker time to raise big money (which he has done so far) and become known statewide; and (3) McCain’s name at the top of the ballot would carry Wicker over the finish line. He was wrong about (1), right about (2) so far, and (3) remains to be seen.
In terms of tapping Wicker, I have to believe that Pickering did not want it. He announced his retirement earlier, sure, but I think if he wanted it, it was his for the asking. All of the coverage down there at the time seemed to say the same thing. With Pickering out, Wicker was probably the obvious choice. Sure, there were other nominees with better name recognition like fmr. LG Amy Tuck, current LG Phil Bryant, and others, but Wicker had the connections to raise the money necessary to run statewide against a strong nominee like Musgrove. I bet he felt Wicker was best equipped to run a Senate campaign given his House runs, but this is open to interpretation. That being said, if Pickering wanted it and Barbour passed him over, that was definitely a screw-up as Pickering is a natural for statewide office. The story of his father being blocked for a seat on the Fifth Circuit by the Democratic Senate would have made perfect fodder for a typical GOP smear race.
Therefore, at least in my opinion, Barbour was right (from his perspective) to move the election to November (and he correctly predicted the ultimate ruling of the political MS Supreme Court), but he may have not fully appreciated Wicker’s weaknesses as a statewide candidate, particularly if he passed over Pickering. If we end up winning this race, though, I think it will speak most to Musgrove’s strengths and Obama’s power at the top of the ticket. Any one agree?
I’m going to guess that it’s because multiple polls have shown Musgrove ahead of Wicker, but only one poll has shown Hagan ahead of Dole. I think both are excellent candidates though, and will end up winning when it’s all said and done.
I think it was obvious that Pickering would have been the repubs best best for holding the Seate seat. But who knows, maybe Pickering was intent on retiring to become a lobbyist.
Either way I don’t think Wicker was a great pick.